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CommoditiesFXGlobal AssetsGoldInterest RatesMacroSilverStocksVolatilityWeekly

Keep Calm And Carry On? – 2022wk41

by K P 16th October 2022
Reading Time: 13 minutes

This Week

  • MACRO
    • UK Chaos
    • Germany’s energy U-turn ?
    • US Housing dilemma
    • Global Transport costs
    • Credit Suisse
  • TECHNICALS
    • US/EU bonds/rates
    • DXY, EUR, GBP
    • ES, NQ, DAX
    • Precious metals / miners
    • Global cross asset performance heatmaps
    • Momentum, Trend, Exhaustion scores
  • “…one more thing…” :

@MacroTechnicals 2022wk41

* this is not a trade recommendation and for educational purpose only. please do your own research.


Keep calm and carry on?

“This famous slogan on a motivational poster was produced by the government of the UK in 1939 in preparation for WW2 and intended to raise the morale of the British public, threatened with widely predicted mass air attacks on major cities.”

Nowadays, it is often used as a meme and in this blog, there are plenty of examples to address it.


Part 1 – UK

The First 100 days often refer to the beginning of a leading politician’s term in office.

This was coined when US President Franklin D. Roosevelt came to office in 1933, at the height of the infamous Great Depression, to signal his intention to move with unprecedented speed to address the enormous problems facing the nation. Since then, not only US presidents, but global leaders, politicians, and even CEOs of major corporations are often measured by this benchmark.

We all remember how UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was ousted which led to the Tory’s party internal race for leadership ending with Liz Truss to become the next Prime Minister on September 6th.

Barely 38 days into her tenor and the chaos continues as she sacked her Chancellor (Finance Minister) Kwarteng.


Well, to be frank, it has been chaotic ever since the EU referendum in 2016: 6 Finance Ministers and 3 Prime Ministers, a cool 2:1 ratio … and counting !

PM Cameron initiated the referendum and resigned afterward. Theresa May, who voted to remain was chosen by her party to become the next PM. A loss in confidence led to a snap general election, resulting in a hung parliament. She also had to go through 2 votes of no confidence and later resigned in 2019. Boris Johnson was then elected internally but was also forced to call a snap election which he won. Controversies during the pandemic led to a mass resignation of ministers and he eventually resigned in July 2022, left the office on 6 September after the internal leadership election took place. And, for now, the PM is Liz Truss, who by the way called for the abolition of the monarchy and also voted to “Remain”.

The revolving doors have even seen six Finance Ministers over the same period of time just 6 years! Hammond, Javid (lasted 6+ months), Sunak (competed later with Truss for PM + leadership), Zahawi (lasted 2 months), Kwarteng (38 days) and now Jeremy Hunt.


There are only two groups that ultimately lead to decisions which either the opposition or even the own party members take leverage from:

  • The public – voting with their feet (currently the “cost-of-living-crisis”)
  • The market (investors and speculators) – voting with the sell button.

So, while the crisis is ongoing for a long time, escalating with inflation spiking to 10%, and energy bills tripling, the so-called “mini-budget” was probably the tipping point and will in my opinion eventually lead to another snap general elections sooner rather than later.

A massive fiscal budget of £200bln+ isn’t just a brain child of one person (e.g. the Chancellor), it is derived by a group, led and appraised by the Prime Minister. The refusal to allow the Office for Budget Responsibility to assess the economic impact of the budget and provide a forecast is another questionable decision.

The market hates uncertainty, and the vote was clear = sell bonds, asking for a higher return for higher risk, and sell the British pound for an initially weaker economy higher government deficit. And vice versa, a slumping currency leads to even more imported inflation, leading to higher interest rates.

If that wasn’t bad enough, the rising yield started a chain reaction, the UK Gilt bond market went into a tailspin, led to UK pension fund margin calls as they operated with LDI and were forced to sell more bonds, leading to higher rates creating the perfect storm. The Bank of England had to step in, and started an emergency buy program, and the UK mortgage lenders withdrew a large chunk of their product.

The current situation regarding “Keep calm and carry on”? = More conservative party members may not have enough confidence in PM Truss, the opposition naturally doesn’t have that anyway, the public is even angrier and now the market has spoken. That was the tipping point and her days as PM are numbered.

High uncertainty = high volatility.

Chaos perfection.


Current market situation:

  • Inflation sky-high
  • SONIA curve is super steep
  • Bond yields catching SONIA rates
  • BoE is more hawkish and catching up with the market
  • The rate of change in bond yields creates huge uncertainty, much higher refinancing costs
  • LDI theme will be scrutinised further and probably result in reforms
  • BoE will not be able to put an ultimatum on UK pension funds to “sort out the mess” and will easily be forced to buy more long-dated gilts = an indirect emergency QE program while in a very hawkish hike cycle.
  • Bonds are in a bear market, depending on the fiscal budget, but technically show “exhaustion signals”
  • GBP remains in a bear market trend as well, creating more inflation via expensive imports. Only the diverging UK-US yield spread is pointing to a possible further rebound of the Pound.

Part 2 – GERMANY

“Keep calm and carry on” or “Bleib ruhig und mach weiter” ?

Carry on with the Green party doctrine or adjust to cheaper energy via nuclear power? Robert Habeck, party leader, Minister for economic affairs and climate action and vice Chancellor (Prime Minister) of Germany held an emotional speech with a narrative “Nuclear power and fossil fuels brought us here. They caused this crisis, they are not the solution” – and got a standing ovation. Of course. From the party. What else to expect?

It was Chancellor Gerhard Schroder SPD-Green coalition who initiated to phase out nuclear power and made Germany so dependent on Russian energy supply, in case someone has forgotten this.

Clean energy is a nice thing to have, but solar and wind power alone will never be enough to compensate for demand. After a group of then EU-countries, led by France, tried to convince the European Commission to recognise nuclear power as low-carbon source, Germany / Habeck hit out to label nuclear and gas “green”.

Well, France still has nuclear power stations and the inflation is 5.6%, Germany’s energy crisis deepened after Russian’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting sanctions, Germany’s inflation stands at 10%. Oops.

FFS, even Greta Thunberg “u-turned” ! From “False solutions” tweet in July to a recent interview with well-known ARD journalist Maischberger “If we have them, it’s a mistake to close them in order to focus on coal”. Which actually made me chuckle… yes, Greta, the poster child for Climate Change, a teenager who skips school every Friday for her protest, has no electrical engineering or science degree is the one to ask.


The interest rate landscape in Germany is still relatively low, compared to other countries, but rates have been rising too, and very fast indeed. ECB’s QE program has ended, and even though there is this new “quasi QE for some” in place, it also raises the same question as everywhere else: what about refinancing risks? The property market and set up in Germany is very different from e.g. UK or US. In Germany, there is no such “climbing the property ladder”, which is partly driven by speculation as house prices go up, homeowners sell with profit, and buy a bigger home with a larger mortgage. The typical German home buyer is there for a long term, probably until old age, and gives the house as an inherence to the children.

Here in the UK, a lot of people take interest-rate-only mortgages with a tenor of 2 years, hoping to catch the price rally and move on. This now creates a huge problem: many hardly pay back their mortgage, and will be forced to refinance now or in the next months with much higher rates. In Germany, the typical mortgage is accompanied by a larger deposit/equity, 2-4% annual mortgage repayments, and a much longer duration, e.g. 10 years. If there is a housing bubble and problem in Germany (e.g. Munich, Hamburg…), it’s mostly driven by international speculators.


Current market situation:

  • Inflation sky-high, especially in Netherlands and Baltic countries in the Eurozone
  • EURIBOR curve is only relatively steep
  • Bond yields catching EURIBOR rates
  • ECB is more hawkish and catching up with the market
  • The rate of change in bond yields creates uncertainty, higher refinancing costs
  • Peripheral countries are on the radar again (Greece, Italy etc)
  • Bonds remain in a bear market for now
  • EUR remains in a bear market trend as well, creating more inflation via expensive imports. Only the diverging EU-US yield spread is pointing to a possible further rebound of the EURO.

Part 3 – USA

“Keep calm and carry on” – or, how tight will the market accept until they scream STOP!

The chart below shows 3months loans on a forward basis, FRA (Forward Rate Agreements), and it really is astonishing how fast the rates have gone up. Every DCF modeler is scratching their head about how often they have to adjust their data. IMHO, we already have reached a questionable height and speed while the Fed continues to hike. Nobody here can seriously keep calm and carry on as usual. This will end in tears.


While bond and loan issuers continue to hold their breath with rising yields and rising spreads, for bond investors it has started to create interest (see dashboard charts of Corporate bond yields/spreads).

But, the US housing market remains under pressure and the first chart reflects the problem: US mortgage loans near 7%, not only more than doubled from post CV19 shock (naturally with so low rates), but they are also much higher than pre CV19. Purchase price affordability dropped like a stone.

That causes obviously selling pressure, higher inventory, and longer listing times, but there is a seasonality effect as well (at least shown here for the previous 3 years). Redfin is doing a great job here with publishing these charts, unfortunately only for 2020, 2021, and 2022. CV19 year is an extremely low base and 2021 as a follow-up year where every asset rallied to the moon, isn’t representative either. Would be nice to see those lines for the last 10 years.

Anyhow, it’s not rocket science to predict a slowing housing market (or worse), but as house prices and rents are coming off, this is relevant for the 32% weight in the CPI basket (= shelter).


Current market situation:

  • “Inflation has peaked” is a wrong narrative. The rate of change may have peaked, but the basket of goods and services is yet again +8.2% higher than same time last year, Core CPI was actually higher than expected 6.6% . Or in other words headline inflation is 4x higher and core inflation 3x higher than Fed’s wishful magical 2% target.
  • FF, SOFR and LIBOR curves are still steep coming into next year in anticipation of a very hawkish Fed
  • Bond yields chasing STIR rates and have NOT rolled over or rolled through
  • FED remains very hawkish and is still catching up with the market
  • The rate of change in bond yields creates uncertainty, higher refinancing costs
  • US housing market on high alert
  • Bonds remain in a bear market for now, though show “exhaustion” signals. Every nibble to get long in small risk has been either a day trade or a slap in the face.
  • US$ Index DXY remains in a bull market trend, creating more problems for e.g. US$ funding emerging countries.

The elephant stays in the room.

NFP was relatively strong, the unemployment rate back to 3.5%, jobless claims relatively low = tight labour market.

PPI stays relatively high, but it was yet again the CPI last Thursday back in the spotlight. Headline slightly higher than expected, but lower vs last month, core CPI however made a new high at 6.6% = inflation remains sticky.

The combination is pretty clear = Fed has no reason to slow down, let alone pause. Another +75bp for the next meeting was immediately priced in nearly 100%, and another +75bp 70% chance for the December meeting.

The result intraday Thursday was surprising though: while yields went up, bonds fell, yield curves bear-flattening, and stocks nosedived… all as one would expect after the CPI. However, it was the sharp rebound of stocks that surprised me, e.g. Nasdaq rallied 6% off the low on that day. Some excused, it was the 50% CV19 low-2021 peak retracement in SPX and 61.8% fibonacci for Nasdaq. Others argue, gamma hedging goes both ways and resulted in a massive short squeeze.

Whatever that was, volatility is the trader’s best friend and portfolio manager’s worst enemy.

Is there a techncial bear market rally on the cards now ? Sure.

Is this already the final bear market bottom ? Most likely not at all.


RoW / Global

Global Transport from China

I have read an interesting article from my FinTwit friend Uresh and wanted to add a bit more colour because one of the main charts from him was the Xenata Shipping Indices from Far East to North Europe and US West Coast.

The lockdown, the insane money supply, then the re-opening, the global supply chain disruption all caused the enormous inflation spike. Visualised in the chart below, e.g. shipping costs absolutely exploded, but have fallen sharply, but are still higher than pre CV19 shock.

This raises the question:

Are they coming down due to improved imbalance or are they crashing due to potential global recession due to too hawkish central banks, and too high interest rates ? The ultra strength of the US$ certainly intensified e.g. emerging market countries, who embarked on cheap US$ loans expansion and now facing a dilemma.

Meanwhile, the US yield curve signals a potential US recession, and as the sample of some countries’ FX reserves table below shows, the top 5 countries with the most declines (China, Japan, Singapore, India, Russia) have an aggregated $720bln drop. Selling US$ to support their own weak currency ? Selling US Treasuries as well ?


Credit Suisse

“Keep calm and carry on” ? – errr, nope. But it’s a bear case since years.

I have a mini long term thread running on Twitter, when $CS started to make some headlines.

The CDS curve has inverted since, but so far spread widening is at a moderate pace, no panic. Default probability 1Y rose from 3% to now 9%, 5Y is up to 27%. If something would be dangerously / imminent, CDS would trade north of 3000-4000bp and 5Y closed around 375bp.

The share price is in a bear market since… 2009 GFC.

However, the latest story of the Fed providing a $6.5bln swap facility (via SNB to CS?) raised further concern. On the chart below is the debt maturity profile of CS, and in 2022 $10.8bln are maturing. Was this one reason for the emergency swap ? As almost all banks prefer to borrow shorter maturities, CS isn’t alone and $41bln are set to expire next year 2023. Now, this is substantial, but also old news, everyone is aware of the share price pace since years, aware of the debt profile and CS is literally a restructuring, reorganisation case since years.

Bail-out, asset sales will continue to be on the agenda. A Lehman 2.0 default is highly questionable, so this is probably not a black swan event then.

The most risky part of the bond capital structure are the perpetual bonds, and the chart below shows how they have performed recently. Of course sell-off, in line with wider spreads, tanking share price, and also an illiquid market for perps.


TECHNICALS

Precious Metals

Quite a big move last week in Silver (-9%) and Palladium (-8%), while Gold fell too.

This year really is a “cash is king” year, stocks are in a bear market, bonds are in a bear market, no save haven bids or theme, even precious metals are in a bear market. The miners don’t only suffer from the underlying assets, their operating / funding costs deteriorate too as interest rates shot up.

GLOBAL CROSS ASSET PERFORMANCE TABLES

performance snapshot wk41


weekly performance snapshot wk41


monthly performance snapshot wk41


outright Momentum/Trend/Exhaustion snapshot wk41


spread/ratio Momentum/Trend/Exhaustion snapshot wk41


…oh, One More Thing…

“Easy stock picking/trading when interest rates are zero and there is QE”

*  as always, please check the DashBoard for the bigger Macro picture and connect the dots

Das war’s , thanks for reading, vielen Dank und good luck, Kai

twitter
16th October 2022
CommoditiesFXGlobal AssetsGoldInterest RatesMacroNatGasSilverStocksVolatilityWeekly

Has The Penny Finally Dropped? – 2022wk38

by K P 25th September 2022
Reading Time: 10 minutes

This Week

  • The Penny Dropped
  • MACRO
    • US view
    • EU view
    • UK view
  • TECHNICALS
    • US/European Rates/Bonds
    • Credit market
    • FX
    • Commodities
    • Stock Indices, Sectors
  • “…one more thing…” :

@MacroTechnicals 2022wk38


 


twitter
25th September 2022
CommoditiesFXGlobal AssetsGoldInterest RatesMacroNatGasSilverStocksVolatilityWeekly

six-point-two vs sixty-six-point-eight – 2021wk45

by K P 14th November 2021
Reading Time: 10 minutes

This Week

  • Opinion piece – wrong direction
  • MACRO
    • Lockdown fear-o-meter update
    • US view
    • Mexico view
  • TECHNICALS
    • STIR: USD & GBP LIBOR curves
    • Bonds: US 2Y-30Y, bond vola moving
    • FX: DXY, EURUSD, Cable, Turkish Lira
    • Commodities: Gold/Goldminers, Silver/Silverminers, US NatGas
    • Equities: VIX, ES, NQ, Tesla, XLY
    • Global cross assets performance heatmaps, momentum/trend/exhaustion scores
  • “…one more thing…” : Alex

@MacroTechnicals 2021wkXX


 


twitter
14th November 2021
CommoditiesCrude OilFXGaugesGlobal AssetsInterest RatesMacroNatGasSilverStocksVolatilityWeekly

Shaken or STIRRED – 2021wk42

by K P 24th October 2021
Reading Time: 15 minutes

This Week

  • Opinion piece: Shaken or STIRRED
  • MACRO
    • US latest data & IR market
    • Canada, ahead of BoC meeting
    • Europe, ahead of IFO & ESI and ECB meeting
    • UK, ahead of the overpriced BoE hike
    • Emerging markets focus Russia, Turkey, Brazil
  • TECHNICALS
    • chartpack
    • RATES: US/European STIR/Long term, LIBORs, T-Notes, T-Bonds, Bunds, BUXLs, BTPs
    • FX: DXY, EURUSD, Cable, AUDUSD, AUDJPY, CADJPY, USDRUB, USDTRY, USDBRL
    • CMDTY: Silver, Crude Oil, NatGas
    • STOCKS: VIX, SPX (incl seasonality & valuation), HSI, China A50, RSX, TUR, EWZ
    • Global cross assets performance heatmaps, Momentum/Trend/Exhaustion scores
  • “…one more thing…

@MacroTechnicals 2021wk42

* this is not a trade recommendation and for educational purpose only. please do your own research.


Opinion Piece

Shaken or STIRRED ?

Gonna watch the latest James Bond “No Time To Die” soon. But I meant STIR as in Short Term Interest Rates. When I go to Twatter platform it often comes across the timeline is just full of S&P500 day traders or perma BTFD guys. And as soon as the US stock market has YET AGAIN made new all-time-highs there are the high-fives and “see, told ya” memes. Stocks never ever go down anymore.

Meanwhile, there is so much going on in the “other” assets classes. Performances and volatilities.

Some central bankers have already embarked on their new hiking phase, while others are more delicate but slowly preparing the market. Or – since they are behind the curve – trying to catch up with the market.

It should be pretty obvious by now, there is no need for a FULL EMERGENCY monetary policy anymore. The world is trying to deal with the CV19-shutdown related aftermath of global supply-chain bottlenecks. But QE and interest rate policy wise, it’s really time to go back to NORMALISATION.

Front end rates in the US, Europe, UK and other laggers CAN ONLY GO UP from here at the moment (and should). US$ LIBOR, or £ LIBOR (or the SOFR/SONIA versions) are finally getting much more attention and momentum, great if you are engaged here via futures or puts.

STIR UP. STIRRED UP.

While some regional stock indices (or bonds and FX) feel the pressure and are indeed SHAKEN, the global benchmark USA is NOT SHAKEN. New all time high. Bravo ! Nice come back !

I took a little more time for this blog to show extensive coverage regarding short term interest rates across some major regions and their positive or negative impact on other assets.

Otherwise, take a look at the dashboard.

Have a great weekend and good week ahead !


MACRO

US

  • Housing Permits fell to 11months low (-8% M/M, +2% Y/Y)
  • Markit Manufacturing flash PMI touch softer but still strong 59.2 (est 60.3, Sep 60.7)
  • Markit Services flash PMI better than expected and strong 58.2 (est 55.1, Sep 54.9)
  • Philly Fed fell to 23.8 (est 25.0 , last 30.7) = after softer NY Empire State this drove the Regional avg to 11.
  •  
  • Next week
    • Monday Dallas Fed
    • Tuesday Richmond Fed
    • Thursday KC Fed, GDP Q3 
    • Friday PCE deflator, Personal income/spending, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan Consumer Confidence final

US$ STIR markets gets itchy

  • Short term interest rates really got big momentum in the last few days/weeks
  • With more inflationary data, unemployment rate dropping to 4.8%, hawkish tones from speakers, market set the tone for nose-diving:
  • 3M USD SOFR (secured) and LIBOR (unsecured) curves have been moving a lot especially since August and got just another momentum wave last week
  • Fed is more pro-active in their communication compared to other major central banks, but it still appears they are behind the curve (at least IMHO) as the US does not have an emergency case status anymore and the Fed keeps kicking the can down the road. Not just a first rate hike. Taper included. 
  • Market is pricing lift-off late next year, I personally would not rule out one earlier first step. 
  • It is quite interesting how aggressive for example 18M/24M LIBORs are being priced here. 
  • Unfortunately Eikon does not provide good historical data for longer than EDc15 (15th contract in the curve and continuous maturity), so I had to use the 15th which is currently Jun2024 instead of Dec2024.
  • Point is: spread differential to various 2Y rates are quite wide. The chart below is not a yield curve slope, these are pick up for very similar maturities (and/or credit risk premium too as LIBOR is unsecured). Meaning: if a professional rate fund assumes that 18M/24M LIBORs are being priced way too aggressive they would buy LIBOR futures and short 2Y Notes futures. 

CANADA

Canada CPI

  • Headline CPI came in at +4.4% (est +4.3%, last +4.1%) = highest reading since 2003
  • Core CPI +3.7% after +3.5% = highest reading since 1990 !
  • Next week Wednesday BoC decision. 

BoC – more tightening next week 

  • With headline CPI +4.4%, Core +3.7% and unemployment back from 13.7% in May2020 to currently 6.9% Bank of Canada might announce the next round round of soft tightening, e.g. further tapering from C$ 2bln/wk to C$ 1bln/wk. 
  • Market is already pricing in more likelihood of first hikes soon. Or will BoC surprise with a hike now ahead of Fed ?
  • CAN$ 3M STIR term structure also “exploded” since August this year with rising inflation (latest +4.4%)
  • Curve looks quite aggressive here IMHO. 

EUROPE

Germany

  • Markit Manufacturing flash PMI: remains surprisingly strong at 58.2 (est 56.5, Sep 58.4)
  • Markit Services flash PMI fell to 52.4 (est 55.0, Sep 56.2)
  • Headline PPI reading at eye-watering +14.2% (est. +12.7%, last +12.0%) = highest since 1974 ! 
  •  
  • Next week: Monday IFO Sentiment

Eurozone 

  • Markit Manufacturing flash PMI: remains surprisingly strong at 58.5 (est 57.0, Sep 58.6)
  • Markit Services flash PMI fell to 54.5 (est 55.5, Sep 56.4)
  •  
  • Headline CPI increased +3.4% as estimated after +3.0% previously 
  • Core CPI at +1.9% (est +1.9%, last +1.6%) = both readings highest since 2008
  • Bonds Shorts theme remains for the time being for “big4” (DE, FR, IT, ES).
  •  
  • Next week
    • Thursday ESI Business & Consumer confidence October surveys, ECB meeting
    • Friday Q3 GDP

ECB – next week non-event ?

  • perma dove Mdme Lagarde will point to economic risk to the downside, supply-chain issues, inflation concern but “transitory”. Bothered. 
  • But woah, even the almighty EURIBOR curve has signs of life, who knew ?
  • While EURIBOR futs drifted lower like nearly all major STIR markets, it’s correlation modelled. I really doubt if ECB will actually raise rates ever. 
  • Slowly drifting into mini bear-steepening STIR structure, but miles from realistic hiking phase.

UK – mixed, but BoE hike around the corner

  • Markit Manufacturing flash PMI strong, 57.7 (est 55.8, Sep 57.1)
  • Markit Services flash PMI strong 58.0 (est 54.5, last 55.4)
  •  
  • CBI Industrial Trend Orders weaker 9 (est 18, last 22, 6mths low)
  • GfK Consumer Confidence weak -17 (est -16, last -13)
  • Retail Sales weaker -1.3% Y/Y (est -0.4%, last -0.2%)
  • Core Retail Sales weaker -2.6% (est -1.7%, last -0.9%)
  •  
  • Headline CPI lower than exp +3.1% (est +3.2, last +3.2%)
  • Core CPI +2.9% (est +3.0%, last +3.1%)
  • RPI +4.9% (est +4.7%, last +4.8%)
  • PPI Input +11.4% after +11.2%, Output +6.7% after +6.0%
  • oh-oh, new confirmed CV19 cases are rising again sharply.
  • Vaccination progress of total population: one dose 73%, second dose 67%
  • Hospitalisations and fatalities so far stable. Hopefully this will not result in yet another more restrictions or regional lockdowns. 

BoE finally turns hawkish, market goes nuts

  • A few weeks ago I included the “BoE behind the curve”-chart in a blog and also tweeted about it. 
  • Inflation has been risen sharply, energy crisis, and STIR & Bond markets screaming : “hey, look at us !”
  • Since THAT chart, 2Y moved from 0.533 to 0.663 (another +13bp) and 10Y from 1.161 to 1.145 (-1.5bp) = short end is catching up to the long end.
  • So, being short Gilts, but more so short LIBOR futs (or via puts) was the appropriate strategy.
  • The final trigger came after Governor Bailey’s comment “Monetary policy cannot solve supply-side problems – but it WILL have to act and MUST DO so if we see a risk, particularly to medium-term inflation and …expectations”.
  • I mean, what’s new ? That’s always the case. Anyway, Monday market players and algos quite overreacted as if BoE will hike 25bp ASAP , which really seemed a bit aggressive.
  • Oct contract literally tanked just before expiration ( bit silly tbh )
  • Dec contract sold off 25bp (!) Monday initially, but recovered a good chunk of it until Friday close. 99.5 puts traded 0.16 intraday on Monday, closed 0.12 and fell back to 0.07. 
  • Here are two snapshots from 3M £ SONIA and £ LIBOR curves
  • See how the curves 2022 expirations bulged up since August
  • Now though the market seems to be way too aggressive pricing in a few rate hikes over the next 12months:

EMERGING MARKET

RUSSIA – catching UP ! 

  • Central Bank hiked for the 6th time, surprisingly aggressive +75bp to 7.50%
  • CB governor said even considered +100bp this week
  • Said “we may consider raising rate again by +100bp”
  • Forecasts:
    • CB rate 7.3%-8.3% range in 2022
    • GDP 4.0-4.5% 2021
    • CPI 4.0-4.5% 2022
    •  
  • Market close this week:
    • RUB +1.2% vs USD (+5.6% YTD)
    • 2Y +42bp (+340bp YTD), 10Y +40bp (+190bp YTD)
    • IRTS -0.7% (+35% YTD), RSX ETF +0.1% (+35% YTD)

TURKEY – predictable unpredictable !

  • What an absolute mess !
  • In March 2021 CB hiked +200bp to 19%, President Erdogan fires the CB governor for being too hawkish.
  • In Sep 2021 the CB cut -100bp back to18% despite soaring inflation, Erdogan promptly fires three CB board members
  • And this week a duper dovish CB cut astonishingly another -200bp to 16%.  
  • Lira fell to record low 9.66
  • Market close this week:
    • TRY -3.5% vs USD (-23% YTD)
    • 10Y +33bp (+690bp YTD)
    • BIST +5% (+0.2 YTD), TUR ETF +1.1% (-22% YTD)
  •  
  • S&P rating agency “despite recent improvements still views BoP weak while Monetary policy is UNPREDICTABLE“, affirmed foreign and local currency, outlook stable.
  • Fitch said “rate cut was another ‘policy misstep’, watching how much this will hurt financing for banks and companies, sees inflation upside risks to 17.2% year-end”. (French, Spanish and Italian banks have large exposure in Turkey).
  • Saturday, Erdogan declared 10 western ambassadors “persona non grata”. 

BRAZIL – running away ! 

  • Mentioned this a few blogs ago, Brazilian markets remain under pressure
  • Inflation is not getting under control, latest reading +10.25%
  • Fiscal challenges and govt is looking to breach its spending cap to boost welfare spending
  • Central bank is intervening in the FX market and selling US$
  • Money fleeing the country
  •  
  • Market this week:
    • BRL -3.3% vs USD (-8% YTD)
    • 2Y +135bp (+685bp YTD), 10Y +108bp (+524bp YTD)
    • Bovespa -7.3% (-11% YTD), EWZ ETF -9.6% (-19% YTD)
  • Market expects Central Bank to raise for the 6th time, +100bp to 7.25%

TECHNICALS

US RATES

  • STIR: extensively shown above in the macro section, there is a lot going on right now in the short term interest rates market. While some central banks have started their new hiking phase already, others are just around the corner and preparing what the market has been telling them for a while. It’s time to move on from emergency CV19 as inflation is way above targets and so far not transitory. £ LIBOR and $ LIBOR are prime examples where the market has been anticipating moves, but needed some form of confirmation trigger. Even though some parts of these term structures look too aggressive. Huge trades recently. 
  • US2Y absolutely on a string, 25bp since Sep and with a huge spread differentials to $ LIBOR implied yields now.
  • US5Y also further momentum and yields now doubled since Jul/Aug lows
  • US10Y making new highs in this upmove since Jul/Aug lows and is facing 1.70/1.80 “resistance” 
  • US30Y is currently in a 2.00-2.20 range, creating not a one-way street like short maturities, but wild/wide futures swings. Dec contract sold off from 194, found again support around 188 level and rallied back strongly. 1 big figure = $1,000 per contract 
  • 2s5s are back to 74bp last seen in April this year. 2s10s kind of range bound 110-130bp, 5s30s retreated back to 87bp, lowest spread since May. Partly supportive for financial sector with rising yields/bear steepening, ultralong end sticky and actually flattening supportive for growth/tech sector. See yield curve charts on the dashboard.
  •  
  • CHARTS:

EUROPEAN RATES

  • Off to the races… even 5Y yields in core Europe can’t be stopped, not by ECB PEPP, not by the market. 
  • Short Europeans Bond Futures theme is still intact, but had certainly already quite a wave.
  • Ultra long end BUXLs though found interest near 0.40% recently and rallied back to 0.22%. No engagement for me at the moment. 
  • IT BTPs getting more sticky coming close to 1% yields. 1.10/1.20% is the key zone on the big picture. Let’s see what ECB (and verbal Draghi interventions) will do then. Since June BTPBUND spread is range bound 100-110bp. Watch that !
  • UK rates are absolutely flying off. 
  •  
  • CHARTS:

CREDITS

  • Investment grade default protection didn’t move much this week, High Yield & EM though slightly wider.
  •  
  • CHARTS:

FX

  • DXY basket struggled to move above 94.50/95 resistance zone, saw a reversal into 93.50 support. 
  • EURUSD broke initially the 1.1650-1.1680 support zone, fell to 1.1538 and bounced straight back. With a pretty obvious ECB/Fed monetary divergence building up and Germany’s export troubles, I don’t see a good reason to be structurally long. Economic surprise index is deep negative, but inflation surprise index high = stagflation fear
  • Cable broke 1.36 support and fell to as low as 1.34 recently, but short cover rebound rally and BoE hike hopes got some extra short term momentum. Yield spreads certainly got a big boost in the last few weeks, but they were also volatile between 10-35bp. Still not my preferred FX pair to be engaged with. 
  •  
  • Commodity driven currencies certainly got their mojo back recently:
  • AUD trading much higher due to that, but it seems also the China contagion risk has been completely shrugged off. 
  • AUDJPY as the classic RiskOn/Off pair has made a huge comeback rally, driven by energy commodity export/import divergence and got now rejected at 85.50/96 resistance zone. This pair rallied +11% off Aug lows. Impressive.
  • CADJPY similar nature: energy driven Can$, BoC tapering and on their way to raise rates, Canada economic surprise index +54 vs Japan -56, Canada CPI +4.4% vs Japan +0.2%, yield spreads widening since Aug/Sep all contributing to the rebound rally from 85 to 93 or +10%. This week bit of profit taking after being overbought. 
  •  
  • CHARTS:

Emerging Markets:

  • USDRUB, USDTRY and USDBRL as explained above in the macro section. 
  • Ruble gaining as Russia clearly has the upper hand regarding NatGas exports to Europe plus Brent rallying strongly
  • Turkish Lira out of control and in uncertainty limbo, capital is fleeing (though USDTRY looks overbought)
  • Brazil Real keeps weakening as the country has not been able to get the sheer stunning inflation in control 
  •  
  • CHARTS:

COMMODITIES

  • Hi-HO Silver. Best commodity performer this week. Recent bear trap was … a bear trap and got me too. Strong rebound in the last 3 weeks, technical long trigger 23.50. Weaker US$ (on inverted right scale) certainly was supportive during last week as well.
  • Crude Oil chopping between $81/$84 this week but closed the week positive on a high note. Technically overbought after the monster +37% rally, backwardation currently supportive (being long front end and roll into next month creates positive roll carry). WTI closed +2.5% this week, Brent Crude +0.6%. What will OPEC+ do when oil hits $100 ? Pump more
  • US NatGas continues the choppy retracement of the previous parabolic rally. 
  • EU and UK NatGas continue to “cool off” after the crazy rally/short squeeze earlier. 
  •  
  • CHARTS:

STOCKS

  • US (global benchmark) volatility has shrugged off all concerns yet again… China, Evergrande, debt ceiling (kicked the can down the road until Dec), Energy crisis, inflation, rising rates, taper talk, meteors, aliens. 
  • VIX spot “crashed” all the way back to 15. Well, obviously you can’t buy “cheap VIX” here, Nov futs are currently at 19-handle. Huge contango curve, creating negative roll yield if you are long, but also shows higher uncertainty term future while nearby “calm down and carry on” mood. So, what will be the trigger for a escalation spot from here to mid 20s ?
  • SPX has a positive historical seasonality, true. And I saw people overlaying 30yrs seasonality in % return axis left and SPX price chart axis on the right, assuming SPX will now go to 4800 because of that. Can a “Santa Rally” bring the index there ? Sure. Everything is possible. We also saw GME trading at $480 or $24bln mkt cap and we also saw WTI Crude Oil trading at negative -40$ last year. But What makes me a little cautious here, SPX is already way above seasonal average return. And it’s already trading at x21 multiples. Let’s say earnings will settle at $215 which gives x20 = 4300 or x22 = 4730. Next target x23 then 4945 ? BY END OF THIS YEAR ? hmm
  • Banks/Financials KBE and XLF ETFs outperformed yet again the SPY benchmark this week, so did URA and XOP ETFs.
  •  
  • NEXT WEEK BIG EARNING REPORTS... FAAMG basket ! Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Twitter, Ebay, Ford, Boeing, McDonalds, Apple, Amazon and Cameco CCJ (=> URA ETF). Could bring some volatility back into tech-skewed SPX/SPY and of course Nasdaq.
  •  
  • CHARTS:
EMERGING MARKETS
  • China’s huge real estate and growth problem … or is it ? Evergrande has indeed paid the coupon on the outstanding US$ bond. Of course they only can do so while trying to sell assets. So, this is a dead man walking. Total restructuring going forward. Bond holders may be happy to get the coupons paid within “grace period”, but their concerns really are to get their total investment back, e.g. Q1 2022 when some big issues maturing. So, it’s “TICK TOCK”. However, the overall market seems to be ok with the strategy of China not imploding, hence VIX back to 15, US stocks back to ATH.. .and HK or China major stock indices +11% off recent low with brave bottom pickers. 
  • Russia, Turkey and Brazil already mentioned above in the macro section, but here are the charts.
  •  
  • CHARTS:

GLOBAL CROSS ASSET PERFORMANCE TABLES

performance snapshot wk42

weekly performance snapshot wk42

monthly performance snapshot wk42

outright Momentum/Trend/Exhaustion snapshot wk42

spread/ratio Momentum/Trend/Exhaustion snapshot wk42

STIR snapshot wk42


…oh, One More Thing…

ICYMI – this made me laugh:

*  as always, please check the DashBoard for the bigger Macro picture and connect the dots

Das war’s , thanks for reading, vielen Dank und good luck, Kai

twitter
24th October 2021
CommoditiesCredit MarketCrude OilFXGaugesGlobal AssetsGoldInterest RatesMacroSilverStocksVolatilityWeekly

Hello Vola ! – 2021wk39

by K P 3rd October 2021
Reading Time: 11 minutes

This Week

  • Opinion piece
  • MACRO
    • Global Business Confidence slows down
    • US Business and Consumer Confidence 
    • Is a technical default coming ?
    • European ESI reading
    • Aftermaths German election
  • TECHNICALS
    • US & European rates/bonds charts
    • FX highlights and potential monster moves coming up
    • All eyes on US/EU energies, NatGas, Crude oil
    • S&P500, VIX, DAX, XLE/GDX, KBE/XLK
    • Global cross assets performance heatmap, momentum/trend/exhaustion scores
  • “…one more thing…”:  debt ceiling/fiscal cliff explained

@MacroTechnicals 2021wk39


 


twitter
3rd October 2021
CommoditiesCredit MarketCrude OilFXGaugesGlobal AssetsInterest RatesMacroSilverStocksVolatilityWeekly

Into The Unknown ? – 2021wk38

by K P 27th September 2021
Reading Time: 12 minutes

This Week

  • Opinion piece – into the unknown
  • MACRO
    • Recent Global Central Bank actions recap
    • US data & FOMC
    • EU data 
    • German election results
  • TECHNICALS
    • Rates: US, UK, EU STIR & Bond market view
    • FX: DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDJPY, USDTRY
    • Commodities: NG, CL, PA
    • Stocks: VIX, ES
    • weekly/monthly global cross asset classes performance heatmaps & momentum/trend/exhaustion scores
  • “…one more thing…” – the rare Hall of Fame Names

@MacroTechnicals 2021wk38


 


twitter
27th September 2021
CommoditiesCredit MarketFXGaugesGlobal AssetsGoldInterest RatesMacroSilverStocksVolatilityWeekly

FUBAR? – 2021wk37

by K P 19th September 2021
Reading Time: 10 minutes

This Week

  • Opinion piece – FUBAR
  • MACRO
    • US latest macro data, FOMC review
    • German Election update
    • China: update on port bottlenecks and Evergrande time ticking bomb
  • TECHNICALS
    • chart updates across bonds/rates, FX, commodities, stock indices: US Treasuries, Bunds, EURUSD, AUDUSD + AUDJPY, Gold, Silver, Palladium, Iron Ore, SPX, NDX, VIX, SSEC, HSI, FXI, EWH, GDX
    • UK Energy crisis & NatGas special
    • Cross Assetclasses Performance heatmaps, Momentum/Trend/Exhaustion scores 
  • “…one more thing… ” – splashdown ! 

@MacroTechnicals 2021wk37

* this is not a trade recommendation and for educational purpose only. please do your own research.


Opinion Piece

FUBAR

FUBAR – in case you don’t know what it stands for: F*cked Up Beyond All Recognition (or Repair from the original US army meaning WW2)

From one crisis to the next, while so many keep dancing “to the moon” song, while possibly cover their ears, eyes and mouths.

From the China Covid19 virus spread, to the politicians response with national/global lockdown and economic shutdown, to supply-demand imbalance and bottlenecks in ports, to now the latest energy crisis Natural Gas/Electricity, soaring consumer prices, and the upcoming potential Evergrande earthquake.

How can politicians and regulators again and again fail to foresee this ?

How many times in the financial history are overleverage & real estate coming into play of a global financial meltdown ? Let’s see how this time the Chinese version will play out on the global scale.


MACRO

CV19 lockdown fear-o-meter


US

  • NFIB Small Business Optimism ticked up to 100.1 (last 99.7)
  • Uni of Michigan Consumer Confidence ticked up to 71.0 (est. 72.0, last 70.3)
  • New York Empire State rebounded to 34.2 (est. 18.0, last 18.3)
  • Philly Fed rebounded to 30.7 (est.18.8, last 19.4)

FOMC next week

Will they or won’t they ? 

  • Recent CV19 new cases and underwhelming last jobs report means kicking the can down the road.
  • I will remain at my current stance: the US is not at any emergency status anymore since quite a while, thus, there is no need for the full emergency tool pack. Taper and gradual reversing to normality. Announce taper plan, while first rate hikes are not to be seen until late 2022 anyway. For me, as I said previously, they are already behind the curve and could have announced tapering a few months ago. Or are they really waiting for a global chain reaction regarding Evergrande potential default ? 
  • September meeting will also see the latest projections for GDP, Unemployment rate, CPI and dot-plot 

EUROPE

  • German Federal election 24 Sep 2021 update

  • Last week ! Still looks like Scholz will be next Kanzler and FDP Lindner will be the “king-maker”
    • Starting to wonder how much influence the mail-in voting will have on this election given the deadlines in context to the tv debates and the recent enormous swings. The share of absentee ballots in German election has risen to near 29% over the decades. 
    • But… imagine the surprise if FDP overtakes Greens and Linke doesn’t even make the 5% hurdle. 
 

China

China pulling all the strings.

The Ports Bottleneck update

During the week, headlines from Maersk CEO, who said:

  • ~10% of global container ship capacity is still waiting to be unload
  • No indications the current situation will change this year

Yes, the major shipping ports bottlenecks continue the supply chain disruption. Some Chinese ports are still partially shut down (“due to new CV19 outbreaks”) and create these knock-on effects for global flow. And clearly it’s just not all about container freights, all types are affected, including dry bulk carrier freight cost, everything is soaring.

What it also shows: China is the one pulling all the strings they want. (Intended or unintended): The start of the CV19 virus, the global shutdown, now the bottlenecks in their ports, and as always anyway the demand for raw materials, the OBOR strategy, the new role in Afghanistan.

EVERGRANDE ticking time bomb

On the other hand, they have the ticking time bomb: the real estate bubble and e.g. Evergrande. Not so ever grand is it ? Huge debt bubble bursting, and/or gigantic restructuring. The contagion to other real estate developers, to banks is large. Some even talk about Lehman 2.0 global effect. Will or can China bail them or others out ? According to Bloomberg, “Evergrande starts repaying wealth product investors with discounted properties”. OMG, LMAO. Before they can pay loan and bond coupons, let alone repay them, they give away (unfinished?) properties instead ?

Very interesting FinTwit thread LINK on this topic

Next week this Senior Secured bond is due for coupon payment (semi-annual). Noticeable: usually credit leads stocks, and in this case share price already diverged negatively vs bond price action in Q1/Q2 2021.

So, how to build up even more tension ? While all this is happening – nobody shall forget China’s pressure on Taiwan and the ongoing contest in the South China Sea – Australia will build eight nuclear-powered submarines under an Indo-Pacific partnership with the US and Britain. wow.


NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS

Macro Data / Events

  • Monday: Canada general election
  • Tuesday: US building permits, Housing starts, 20Y US treasury auction
  • Thursday: flash MPMI/SPMI data release, AU, EU, DE, FR, UK, US… KC Fed regional
  • Friday: UK GfK, Japan CPI, German IFO, France INSEE, Belgium NBB, flash MPMI/SPMI JP, Jay Powell speech
  • Sunday: German general election
  •  
  • public holidays:
    • Monday – public holidays Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan
    • Tuesday – public holidays China, South Korea, Taiwan
    • Wednesday – HK, South Korea
    • Thursday – Japan
    • Friday – South Africa, Thailand
  •  
  • Central Banks this week
    • Tuesday – Sweden, Indonesia, Hungary (+25bp?)
    • Wednesday – China PBoC, Japan BoJ, US Fed (taper?), Brazil (+100bp?)
    • Thursday – BoE, SNB, Norway, Turkey, South Africa, Philippines, Taiwan 

TECHNICALS

RATES

  • Nobody is perfect I guess as my thoughts were US long duration yields should drift lower for various reasons: a) as stocks having a correction, rotation into bonds, b) potential China slowdown and the Evergrande story looming: flight to safe haven. However, US 10s yields keep pushing upwards and testing 1.35/1.38 zone. Ok, NFIB, NY empire, Philly Fed all saw a positive rebound. Or the market is playing a new reflation theme/ super taper expectations ?
  • The US yields gave some momentum to the European bond markets and German Bunds/Buxl – still on a trading short theme – pushed lower, yields rose higher.
  • GBP STIR 2022-23 maturities sharp moves, indicating markets expect BoE rate hikes possibly Q3/Q4 2022
  • NZD STIR had quite a movement last week, suggesting RBNZ is further expected to hike in 2021
  • CHARTS:

CREDITS

  • “All Quiet On The Western Front”… fair enough, the title of that novel has absolutely nothing to do with the credit swap indices, but it’s worth to keep an eye on now given the potential spill over / contagion of China’s problem. Let’s see. But CDX EM widened slightly at 4wk high to 155bp
  • China’s sovereign bond yields finally had some movement. (by the way – I prefer to show this here in “credit” section than above in the “rates” section). It puzzled me how international investors were or still are so bullish on Chinese credit, 10Y yields had a heck of a RiskON run from 3.34% down to 2.82% or 52bp. Given the risks, yields should be higher with a proper 3-handle. 
  • CHARTS:

FX

  • US$ has seen a positive momentum the week , IMHO risk-off mode and upcoming FOMC meeting expectations. 
  • However, focus should also be on Australian Dollar. AUDUSD or AUDJPY for many reasons: a) CV19 cases kept rising to new ATH, and the government is very much in the lockdown favour camp, thus slowing any recovery in the economy . b) China slowdown & Evergrande issue c) with this the collapse on Iron Ore and other relevant commodities. 
  • CHARTS:

COMMODITIES

  • NatGas:
  • US:
    • the good news, US drillers add rigs for second week, Gulf coast energy companies restart after storms
    • the bad news: storage is still well below 5Yr average thus with higher demand and autumn/winter approaching, there is still a substantial demand/supply imbalance. (I highlighted the gaps on the first chart)
    • Another very volatile week, another short squeeze rally low-high +14%, probably also initiated by call option buyers and market maker hedging. As hurricane Nicholas eased off and companies restarting supply, NG fell high-low -11%. Exhaustion score eased from +3.0z to +2.9z
  • UK/Europe:
    • The storage problem in UK/Europe is much more severe, e.g. NG prices here soared +390% since April (compared to +116% in the US), or doubled since August (compared to +50% in the US)
    • The UK regulator Ofgem said price cap for default domestic deals would be raised by +12% to cover suppliers extra costs and will again be reviewed in a few months.
  • This begs the question: is NatGas UK price the anomaly or is NatGas US actually cheap ? The last time both markets went into the orbit was 2005, then 2008. Of course with the global shutdown in 2020, prices tanked to multi-decades low. 
  • The cold winter 2020/2021 left global storage levels completed, Brazil dry weather forced the country be more reliant on gas power as hydroelectric dams were not able to produce as much electricity. The summer in the Northern hemisphere faced hotter weather (with heat domes over North America, Greenland, Southern Europe, Siberia), that increased demand for gas to generate electricity for air conditioners. Also lack of wind reduced capacity to generate power via the wind farms. As a result, here in the UK, 4 smaller energy providers mismanaged and ceased to trade (People’s Energy, Utility Point, PFP Energy, MoneyPlus Energy). Every other provider either won’t be able to take on all new customers and/or monthly bills will explode into the winter. Reduced profit margins usually will be transferred to the end customers.
  • (Last chart in this section) Also: apparently there is second-year cold La Nina in progress (El Nino = warm phase, La Nina = cold phase). These patterns have major impact and complex interaction of the ocean-atmosphere system. Here is a lengthy explanation link. 
  • Germany is taking off the nuclear power plants, accelerating this process since the Fukushima disaster, but they are also ever so reliant on Russia’s gas supply (Nord Stream pipeline1+2 completed in June/Sep 2021).
  • So much for “transitory”. From one crisis to the next. 
  • Precious Metals:
  • Silver and Gold took a beating this week, one factor the rebounding strength of US$.
  • Palladium -5.7% w/w, Silver -5.6% w/w and new 52wk low, Gold -1.9% w/w, Platinum -1.5% w/w
  •  
  • Iron Ore continues to getting absolutely destroyed. China and Australia mirror image. Iron Ore Dec2021 futures are now -50% off July peak, sold off -35% in the recent down wave since late August.

STOCKS

  • Hmm, the “predictable OpEx dip” – is still dipping ? 
  • SPX & NDX continued their correction mode and closed on the low last Friday. Not even a weekend / short cover rebound. Large Tech underperformed Small caps. 
  • VIX spot moved from 17 week low to 21, indicating short term nervousness. 
  •  
  • China and HK naturally at the bottom performer list.
    • SSEC -2.4% w/w , FXI -4.0% w/w 
    • HSI -4.9% w/w, EWH -5.5% w/w
  • With China weakness, materials ETF under pressure too, XME ETF -5%, COPX ETF -5.6%, PICK ETF -6.5%, STOXX 600 Basic Materials North America -5%, Europe -7.7%.
  • Goldminers GDX closed -2.9% and new 52wk low, Gold & Silver perma bulls need even more patience.
  • CHARTS:

GLOBAL CROSS ASSET PERFORMANCE TABLES

weekly performance snapshot wk37

monthly performance snapshot wk37

outright Momentum/Trend/Exhaustion snapshot wk37

spread/ratio Momentum/Trend/Exhaustion snapshot wk37

STIR snapshot wk37


…oh, One More Thing…

YEAH ! One of the most enjoyable splashdown in history. Great idea, perfect execution, great cause for the fundraising “Inspiration 4” mission ! Welcome back to planet Earth, guys !

*  as always, please check the DashBoard for the bigger Macro picture and connect the dots

Das war’s , thanks for reading, vielen Dank und good luck, Kai

twitter
19th September 2021
CommoditiesCredit MarketFXGaugesGlobal AssetsGoldInterest RatesMacroSilverStocksVolatilityWeekly

Who fools whom ? – 2021wk35

by K P 5th September 2021
Reading Time: 11 minutes

This Week

  • Opinion piece – “so what?”
  • MACRO
    • Restriction/Lockdown  fear-o-meter update
    • Global Manufacturing & Services PMI update
    • US Macro ISM/NMI and the big NFP miss update
    • EU macro ESI PMIs update
    • German Election : which trio ?
  • TECHNICALS
    • Bonds/Rates, FX, Commodities, Stock Indices, VIX chartbook
    • Cross assets performance heatmaps & trend/momentum/exhaustion scores
  • “…one more thing…”  – you’ve got fooled, again

@MacroTechnicals 2021wk35


 


twitter
5th September 2021
CommoditiesFXGoldInterest RatesMacroSilverStocksVolatility

“Vertigo” – 2021wk33a

by K P 15th August 2021
Reading Time: 7 minutes

This Week

  • News piece – History repeats itself ?
  • MACRO
    • Restriction/Lockdown Fear-o-meter update
    • US data recap: CPI, UoM, NFIB
    • EU data recap, ZEW
    • German Federal Election countdown
  • TECHNICALS
    • Charts across Rates, Bonds, FX, CMDTY, Stock Indices
    • Vertigo ?
    • Performance snapshot heatmaps cross assets, Momentum/Trend/Exhaustion scores
  • “…one more thing…” :

@MacroTechnicals 2021wk33


 


twitter
15th August 2021
CommoditiesCrude OilFXGlobal AssetsGoldInterest RatesMacroSilverStocks

US NFP ROAR – 2021wk32

by K P 8th August 2021
Reading Time: 8 minutes

This Week

  • MACRO
    • Global outlook
    • US economic update
    • Europe update
  • TECHNICALS
    • multi asset charts
    • performance heatmaps snapshots
    • outright and relative momentum/trend/exhaustion scores
  • “…one more thing…” :

@MacroTechnicals 2021wk32


 


twitter
8th August 2021
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